Melanie Larsen on the Art of Trend Forecasting

Trend forecasting is about anticipation and adaptation. It’s a discipline that analyses the current state of the world—be it through social, economic, or cultural lenses—and predicts how these conditions will influence future fashion and lifestyle trends. This foresight is essential for the fashion industry, enabling brands to stay ahead of the curve, minimise risks associated with market volatility, and align their products with consumer expectations.

In our digital seminar, ‘My Role as a Trend Forecaster’, we spoke to Melanie Larsen, a seasoned trend forecaster, who spoke through her journey and what the role entails. “It’s really about being curious,” Larsen states, highlighting the importance of understanding the forces that drive consumer behaviour. This understanding is crucial because fashion is not just about clothing; it’s a form of expression that’s influenced by a multitude of external factors including global events, technological advances, and shifting societal norms. 

So, if you missed out on the talk, don’t worry, we’ve got all the key points covered below!

Consumer and Product Dynamics

Forecasters like Larsen play a key role in interpreting these broad trends for fashion brands, offering insights that are both actionable and profitable. By analysing data from various sources—consumer behaviour, market research, sales data, global fashion weeks, and even shifts in political climates—they provide guidance on what colours, materials, styles and products are likely to appeal to consumers in upcoming seasons.

Larsen discusses the nuanced understanding of how products and consumer behaviours influence each other. She describes forecasting as navigating a “chicken and egg situation” where it is often unclear whether consumer demand shapes the products or vice versa. This complexity requires forecasters to continually assess both sides of the equation, making educated predictions about future interactions between consumers and products.

The Groundwork of Research: Ethnography and Beyond

Larsen places a strong emphasis on research, which forms about 95% of the role. Beyond desk research, she delves into ethnography (the systematic study of individual cultures) to understand why people within specific demographics behave as they do. “Researching why we are behaving this way, especially when looking at consumer behaviour, is crucial,” she explains. Her background in psychology aids her in interpreting these behaviours, providing a foundation for predicting how trends might evolve.

The Essential Role of Intuition

Despite the richness of data available, Larsen highlights the irreplaceable role of intuition in trend forecasting. She argues that while AI can process information and help identify patterns, it lacks the human touch necessary to weave these into a coherent narrative. “AI will never take over anyone’s job completely, especially within trend forecasting…a big chunk of forecasting is also the element of intuition,” she asserts. This intuition is often sparked by on-ground experiences, such as her time working in retail, where she first began to notice how frequently certain products were purchased and started to see emerging patterns.

Challenges of Predictive Work

Forecasting is fraught with unpredictability. Larsen reflects on the challenges of making long-term forecasts in a world where unforeseen events can overturn established trends. “You make a prediction…and then things out of your hands can change everything,” she states, acknowledging the difficulties of working with such uncertainties. She cites the pandemic as an example, where prior trends were disrupted, leading to new, unanticipated consumer behaviours.

Leveraging Past Insights for Future Predictions

Past insights are often used to inform future predictions. She notes the resurgence of nostalgia in products like Barbie and Lego, explaining how these trends provide comfort during uncertain times. “Whenever brands tap into nostalgia, it drives interest and demand,” Larsen observes, illustrating how understanding historical consumer reactions can help predict future trends.

Conclusion: The Human Element in a Data-Driven Field

Melanie Larsen’s detailed insights reveal that trend forecasting is as much about understanding human psychology and cultural nuances as it is about analysing data. Her career exemplifies the blend of science and intuition that defines the field, requiring a continuous balance between empirical research and empathetic insights into human behaviour. For those looking to enter this field, Larsen’s journey underscores the importance of curiosity, rigorous research, and the ability to adapt to an ever-changing global landscape.